Thursday, February 25, 2016

J.C. Penney Can't Rebound? Of Course It Can, Old Sport

Can't time the market? To quote Jay Gatsby when "old sport" Nick Carraway tells him he can't repeat the past: "Of course you can." In fact, those who say they don't try to time the market do it anyway. What else is buying low and selling high but timing? Well, OK, maybe not the market, but timing sure comes in handy in finding the stock of a company on the cusp of surprising the crowd.
We've been JCP bulls for some time (click here for our last article on JCP) and put our money where our mouth has been the other day, buying a stake in the company at $7.50 per share ahead of tomorrow's fiscal fourth quarter earnings release.
Here's why:
  • Holiday comps came in 3.9% higher, way better than competitors, which makes us think...
  • JCP will continue to take market share from competitors like Macy's, which should help convince skeptics and short sellers that...
  • JCP will achieve its EBITDA and free cash flow goals in 2016.
We'll be back with a deeper analysis after the fiscal fourth quarter results are released.